Cold wave induced mortalities in Bangladesh: Spatiotemporal analysis of 20 years' data, 2000-2019

Abstract

The study aimed to explore the spatiotemporal patterns and characteristics of cold wave mortality in Bangladesh by developing a cold wave dataset using content analysis. Due to the absence of a formal database about cold wave-related mortality in Bangladesh, we first developed a cold wave mortality dataset using content analysis of four (04) leading national daily newspapers’ cold wave-related news from 2000 to 2019 and crosschecked with other related reports. Then, we analyzed the data to obtain the spatiotemporal trends and characteristics of cold wave mortality in Bangladesh. A total of 5610 people died in 81 cold wave events (spells) in Bangladesh during the 20 years, with an average of 281 deaths per year. The average duration of cold waves (spells) in Bangladesh was 25.4 days per year, with a statistically significant increasing trend over the period. The highest cold wave mortality rate was found in the Kurigram District; the rate was 163.63 deaths per million people per year. About 58% of cold wave spells and 58.5 % of cold wave mortality occurred in January, followed by December (22%) during the study period. However, cold wave mortality varied from district to district; northwestern districts of Bangladesh were more prone to cold waves and reported a higher mortality rate. During the study period, more children and males died due to cold waves than females in Bangladesh. The study findings serve as a foundation for future research and policy development to establish cold wave management guidelines to reduce the risk of cold wave exposures among vulnerable people in the country.